Greed is Good

I've noticed a common trait amongst the mediocre regs in my game. When they have clear river value and the action is on them, they let fear dictate their sizing decision. They're afraid of betting too large and making villain fold. I'm sure they've tried it a few times before, but of course, the feedback they get is that villain folds more often than they call. Plus, nobody wants to sit with regret, wondering if they may have called had we bet smaller.

It's easy to tell ourselves, "He has 2nd pair at best... I wouldn't call 2x pot here, so why would he?" That's a lack of empathy, and it's a common trap. We tend to lazily project our own thought process onto others instead of truly observing.

Winning no-limit hold’em isn’t about being right more often than you’re wrong. It’s about maximizing the rare situations where you can be certain.

Let's look at a hand example from one of those mediocre regs.

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 100BB effective

Preflop: BTN(weak-reg) raises to 2.5BB. SB(loose-aggro) 3-bets to 10.40BB. BTN calls.

Flop: 5♥ 6♠ 7♦ (22BB)

SB checks. BTN bets 11BB. SB calls.

Turn: 6♦ (44BB)

SB checks. BTN checks

River: 4♣ (44BB)

SB checks. BTN bets 14BB. SB calls.

Result

SB shows A♦ 5♦ BTN shows 7♣ 7♥. and wins with Full House, Sevens full of Sixes.

Analysis

There's no question whether his hand was strong enough to play for stacks. He simply chose not to. Anemic river bets like this are starving his win rate.

See his results below.

I analyzed my own database and determined that I get called about 18% of the time when betting the river 200% pot or bigger. Of course, statistics like this gloss over the individual nuances of each hand, but it's a useful finding.

Let's go back to the "mediocre reg's" river decision. Assume he can only choose between the following options:

A.) Bet 33% pot B.) Bet 200% pot

Let's also assume that if we choose option A, we know for certain that villain will call 100% of the time. If we choose option B, how often would villain need to call for B to be higher EV than A?

It's 18%.

Video Poker

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 140BB effective

Preflop: BTN(Hero) raises to 2.5BB. BB(Fish) calls.

Flop: A♦ A♣ J♥ (5.5BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 1.8BB. BB calls.

Turn: 3♣ (9BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 6BB. BB calls.

River: 9♣ (22BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 125BB. BB calls.

Result

BB shows J♣ 6♣ BTN shows A♠ J♦. and wins with Full House, Aces full of Jacks.

Analysis

I believe jamming is correct vs. a fish, and in theory, this shouldn't be the best strategy. Here's what that looks like.

The solver chooses a pot-sized bet because we don't have a nut advantage. BB has all the AJ, A9, and A3. So, in theory, he should have a raising range, and both our nutted and thin value hands benefit because we can bet-fold our thin value and bait a bluff with our nutted hands.

That's great and all, but recreational players don't think or play like a solver. I always like to say that fish are playing "video poker." Pull up a seat at the bar in almost any casino, and there'll be a video poker machine you can play. There are a few different variants, but all of them pay out based on the absolute hand you make, not a relative hand that has to compare with another.

Calling with a flush here is an absolute punt... and that's my point. Bad players cannot make themselves fold absolute strength hands. In his world, a flush is a strong hand, and he won't fold strong hands.

A Studious Fish

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 100BB effective

Preflop: BTN(Hero) raises to 2.5BB. BB(Fish) calls.

Flop: A♦ T♠ 3♠ (5.5BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 1.8BB. BB calls.

Turn: 7♠ (9BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 6BB. BB calls.

River: 2♣ (22BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 89BB. BB calls.

Result

BB shows A♠ 5♦ BTN shows K♠ 5♠. and wins with Full House, Aces full of Jacks.

Analysis

I've been seeing this more over the past few years. Even super-inexperienced players have heard of having blockers on flush boards. They probably saw one YouTube video that vaguely covered a spot like this, and they're eager to use their new idea.

Know the Relative Nuts

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 100BB effective

Preflop: HJ(Hero) raises to 2BB. SB(Unknown) calls.

Flop: 7♦ 7♥ K♥ (5BB)

SB checks. HJ bets 1.6BB. SB calls.

Turn: 5♠ (8BB)

SB checks. HJ bets 8BB. SB calls.

River: Q♣ (24BB)

SB checks. HJ bets 88BB. SB calls.

Result

SB shows K♠ Q♥ HJ shows A♥ A♠. and wins with Two Pair, Aces and Sevens.

Analysis

Playing for stacks with the nuts is one thing, but you also need to be conscious of what the nuts actually are. Keep track of the relative nuts.

In this hand example, what's the best hand the SB could have on the river? The SB declined to raise twice and risked the HJ checking back the river, so we have to discount the amount of trips in his range. Be careful not to fall into the "video poker" trap and tell yourself you only have two pair here.