About 3 months ago a moved up in stakes from 100NL to 200NL. I was met with mediocre results and my win rate dropped from 12bb/100 to 2bb/100.

My 2026 results January to April. (30NL,50NL,100NL) blum_1-4 PokerstarsPA moved to Fanduel in April that's why the usernames are different

My 2026 results April to June (50NL,100NL) blum-4-6

Now my 2026 results from June to Now (200NL,100NL) blum_6-now

Still winning, but ugh...something changed. What happened to my red-line? What am I doing different?

In my quest to diagnose the sickness I decided to review hands from a player in my current game that's crushing like nobody else in the pool. See his results below. (username is erased to keep anonymity) sou

And here from legacy PokerStars. ry

You could make the argument that it's a limited sample size, but from my experience this is not what good variance looks like. Both the blue and red line up and to the right, and from my anecdotal experience this person is difficult to play against.

So what is this player doing that I'm not? I reviewed their hands and it wasn't what I expected. There where four motifs that stuck out to me.

1.) Make me Bluff You...

When I first saw the difference in red-line my knee-jerk conclusion was "Oh yeah he's probably just bluffing a lot and committing through the river". No not really, in fact he was running less "big bluffs" than me. It could be our problem is analyzing bluffs with a more or less mindset, when we should be thinking about what type of bluffs.

Example 1.)

Game: Online 6-Max 100NL — 60BB effective

Preflop: BTN(Hero) raises to 2.5BB. BB(Fish) calls.

Flop: 3♥ 5♣ 2♠ (5.5BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 3.85BB. BB calls.

Turn: 7♦ (13.20BB)

BB checks. BTN checks.

River: 2♣

BB checks. BTN checks.

Result

BTN shows Q♣ 9♣. BB shows A♠ 6♦ and wins with Ace High.

Example 2.)

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 100BB effective

Preflop: BTN(Hero) raises to 2.5BB. SB(weak-tight) calls.

Flop: A♠ Q♠ Q♣ (6BB)

BB checks. BTN checks.

Turn: 2♠ (6BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 4.2BB. BB calls.

River: 4♣

BB checks. BTN checks.

Result

BTN shows J♦ 5♦. BB shows A♥ T♦ and wins with Two Pair, Aces and Queens.

Analysis

I mean there's nothing wrong with the way he played in either of these hands. They're even GTOWizard approved. It's just not what I expected.

2.) It's hard to make a pair...

3.) The most important Street...

4.) Consistency...