Overbetting the Flop

We're 100BBs deep, you raise from the BTN, the BB calls, and the flop comes J♠ 8♥ 3♣.

What is your c-betting strategy here? The majority of players I see bet somewhere between 25% and 50%. Why?

There's so much poker dogma praising the small flop c-bet. We want to deny equity, cap their range, yada yada.

What about just putting a lot of money in the pot with good hands?

Consider c-betting 125% with just about anything with robust equity.

First of all, it's important to note that 125% isn't an arbitrary number. It's the perfect geometric size, meaning we can bet 125% on all three streets and be all-in on the river.

Let's look at the imbalances of this spot. The BTN has the dominating overpairs and TPTK (QQ+, AJ). The BB's defense is mainly weak showdown value and draws.

The BTN is targeting Jx, 8x, T9, 97, and QT. If the BTN is going to target draws and vulnerable SDV, it needs to pile in the money early or risk losing action later on bad runouts. Assuming bricked turns and rivers, the BTN's plan is to bet 125% on the turn and river with QQ+ and AJ.

Just about half of the deck (A, Q, J, T, 9, 8, 7) will force the BTN to slow down on the turn, highlighting the importance of betting big early.

If the board runs out without hitting an Ace or connecting the front-door straight, the BTN is jamming TPTK+ on the river.

(J♠ 8♥ 3♣ 5♥ 4♦)

So many players would instinctively check back the river with anything that isn't J8 or better. Remember, this isn't a 2x hyper-polar river situation. We've already bloated the pot and we're left with an SPR of one on the river.

The Snowball Effect

Below is a real hand I observed in one of my games. The BTN is a typical regular, and the BB is a loose recreational.

Game: Online 6-Max 200NL — 100BB effective

Preflop: BTN raises to 2.5BB. BB calls.

Flop: A♥ Q♠ 2♦ (5.5BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 2BB. BB calls.

Turn: 6♣ (9.5BB)

BB checks. BTN bets 6.5bb. BB Calls

River: 4♣ (22.5BB)

BB checks. BTN checks.

Result

BB shows A♦ 5♣ BTN shows A♣ K♥. and wins with One Pair, Aces.

Analysis

As played, and assuming we're only allowed to bet 33% on the flop and 66% on the turn, it isn't a mistake to check back the river. We get to the third street super deep, and it's no longer worth sticking our neck out to milk one pair and risk getting raised.

What about instead c-betting 250% of the pot?

In the hand above, he could have bet 250% on the flop, 75% on the turn, and 75% on the river and be all-in with AK.

It's tempting to think you'll be giving up EV with a silly bet sizing. I mean, won't people just fold Ax and only call with 22 and A2?

I challenge you to try this in your own games, and I think you'll be quite surprised. People have a really hard time folding the flop, and an even harder time folding once they've committed a large amount of their stack to the pot.

The player in the example above won 8BBs. This game is not about winning tiny pots with premium hands. Good players play for stacks.